The Personal Computer is Dying!

Really? If you forward an e-mail to 100 people, Bill Gates will send you $1000. You've won a million dollar lottery even though you didn't enter the lottery. Hotel room key cards contain personal information thieves can harvest. Oh, and the sky is falling, too. There's been so much written and said about the end of the PC era that a little common sense seemed in order.

The PC era started more than 40 years ago at a time when mainframe computers ruled the world. Mainframe computers were doomed, some said. In fact, mainframe computers are still needed for some tasks and that may be the key to why PCs aren't doomed, either. They're simply appropriate for some tasks.

Maybe you need a highly-customized computer with a lot of disk space or a lot of memory or a really fast processor. Try configuring a phone or a tablet to add those features. You can customize notebook computers to some extent, but true customization requires a big box into which specific components will be placed.

Along the same lines, maybe you need multiple monitors. I've run dual-monitor systems for several years and whenever I have to do any real work on a notebook computer or attempt to do some real work on a tablet, the single small screen is a real detriment to productivity. That's what computers are all about: Productivity. If you have a computer that slows you down, what's the point? I have a large tablet and a small tablet; they are wonderful computing devices for the tasks that they do well. But I would never want to use either tablet, or a notebook, for that matter, to put together a TechByter Worldwide program.

If you're a real hardcore gamer or somebody who creates content for a living (or even for fun) notebook computers are the bare minimum you'll be able to work with. Most people who fit either of these descriptions will want a large, powerful desktop system with a lot of memory. They'll also want full-size keyboards and real mice. Granted, you can attach a keyboard and a mouse to a tablet, but you're still stuck with the small screen. And, yes, there are devices that will allow a tablet computer to run multiple large monitors, but then you're still stuck with the small amount of on-board memory. And, yes, there are ways to attach huge disk drives to the tablet that's now connected to a keyboard, a mouse, and two big monitors, but if you're going to go to all that trouble and expense, doesn't a desktop system sound more reasonable?

Desktop systems also have the processing power needed for multi-tasking, for powerful applications such as video and photo processing, and the ability to be configured for multiple operating systems, either by using virtual machine (VM) software or by dual-booting the computer.

This may well be the year of the tablet and certainly tablets are selling well. But just as mainframes continue to be used for those applications where it makes sense to run a mainframe, I think we're going to see desktop computers for many, many years. Fewer of them, yes. But they're not a dying breed.

Malware's Growing Threat

The message said somebody wanted to connect with me on LinkedIn, but I'd never heard of the person. Should I accept the invitation or click the link to see the person's profile? Moments later, a message from American Express told me that I had just made a $5000 purchase and I told the company to notify me of any purchase larger than $2000. Should I check it out?

For LinkedIn, the answer is NEITHER and for American Express, the answer is NO.

Those who create malware are getting smarter. The LinkedIn message exactly mimics real messages from LinkedIn. Even a more-than-casual examination of the message provided no visible clue that it was a fake. Only hovering the mouse cursor over the poisoned link told the tale because the link went not to LinkedIn but to an IP address.

The American Express message was a bit easier. I haven't set any specific limit that should trigger a notification from American Express, but I know from experience that the company's anti-fraud unit is vigilant and watches closely for pattern changes. When American Express has a question, I receive an automated phone call. So although I knew that the message was a fraud, there was nothing about its appearance that would reveal that. Hovering the mouse cursor over the link revealed the address of a hijacked website in Central Europe.

The amount of fraud on the Internet is exceeded only by the amount of porn on the Internet.

An up and coming threat, one that you'll probably start seeing soon, is Facebook-based malware that will appear to be a video from someone you know. The link might come in an e-mail message or it may appear in a Facebook message from someone you know. The message will say that you've been tagged in a Facebook post. Click the link and you'll go to a malware site that will prompt you to download a plug-in needed to view the video. The download will hijack your computer and your Facebook account.

This is a threat that combines malware and social engineering, but it does so in an automated manner. This makes the threat far more serious than the typical social-engineering ploy that requires a significant investment of time and resources by the fraudsters.

Facebook says that its security team is working to eliminate the links and currently the service is attempting to block the malicious sites when users click on links within the Facebook application. Links that are delivered via e-mail are more problematic because they take Facebook out of the equation. Some antivirus applications will catch and suppress the malicious links and some router manufacturers (Netgear, for example) replace your Internet service provider's DNS server with their own and will also block attempts to follow known malware links.

It used to be that the best advice was never to click a link in an e-mail from someone you don't know, then it became "don't click any link in an e-mail". Now it's expanding to "don't click anything ever." Or maybe: "Just turn off your computer and give up."

The best protection continues not to be hardware or software, but wetware—the stuff located between your ears. When coupled with a healthy amount of skepticism (not to say paranoia), the wetware will maintain your security. Hover your mouse cursor over links instead of clicking them. If the link appears to be legitimate, type it into your browser instead of clicking. If any website wants you to install a plug-in or browser extension, leave immediately and go to the browser manufacturer's plug-in/extension service.

Mozilla, for example, provides an add-on service. Microsoft and Google do the same for Internet Explorer and Chrome. Visit those services to obtain any browser extension and, even then, it's a good idea to use a search engine to look for information about an extension before you install it.

As the crooks become smarter about finding ways to steal our information and our money, we have to become smarter about keeping our information and money safe and secure. It's not always easy, but it's not that hard, either. As Sgt. Esterhaus used to say on Hill Street Blues, "Let's be careful out there!"

The Ballmer Years: Good, Bad, and Ugly

In the past week, the tech media have overflowed with articles about Steve Ballmer—what he did right at Microsoft and what he got wrong. I don't want to spend a lot of time with an equally lengthy rumination, but I can't ignore the 13-year Ballmer era, either, now that it's near an end. So here's a short synopsis.

Right (but not right away): Windows 8 and the Surface tablet. Microsoft hasn't sold anywhere near the number of Surface tablets that had been anticipated. That may be in part because Microsoft, as it always seems to do, made one disastrous mistake. In this case, that mistake was the RT tablet. It looks like it's running Windows, but it won't run legacy Windows applications. The Surface Pro, on the other hand, is one of the best Windows 8 tablets on the market.

If Microsoft can maintain a presence in the market, the Surface could become increasingly important.

And Windows 8 continues to be scorned, largely by people who seem not to know much about it. The upcoming 8.1 release may help, but no matter what, people are going to continue to use desktop and notebook computers for a few more years although the market for these machines is clearly in decline as tablets become more powerful and more versatile.

Worst Product Ever: Windows Vista. I tried for 2 years to like Vista because it had a lot of promise, but it was Microsoft's worst operating system since Windows Me (Millennium Edition). Bloated and unstable, it was slow and crashed frequently. Even Ballmer says that this is the product he most regrets having foisted on an unsuspecting public.

But Vista led to Windows 7, a faster and more stable version that many people refer to as "Vista done right." Now if those same people would just realize that Windows 8 is "Windows 7 done better."

An Aging Winner: The Xbox. OK, so the Xbox really dates back to the time when Bill Gates was running the place, but Ballmer has been in charge for most of the device's run. A second-generation Xbox has sold well (about 60 million units) and a third-generation Xbox One is scheduled for release in November.

In 2010 Microsoft released Kinect, a gesture-based Xbox controller and it has been a huge hit. How much life is left in the Xbox remains to be seen.

Dumb and dumber: Zune and Kin. Microsoft released it's Ipod killer, the Zune, in 2006. Although it had a lot of features, it looked clunky next to Apple's Ipod and the operation was equally clunky. Just as Microsoft has pulled lessons from other failures, technologies developed for the Zune were later recycled for use in other portable products. (An earlier example: Microsoft Bob, in the Gates years, led to some of the features we see in today's operating systems.)

And the Kin, Microsoft's attempt to create a low-priced phone aimed at the teen market. The phones turned out to be too expensive and too limited. The phones needed a data plan, but didn't have the hardware needed to effectively use a data plan. After 2 months, Microsoft pulled the virtual plug on its Kin.

Meh. Microsoft Smartphones: Today's Windows Phones are really pretty good, but they have to overcome a lot of negative karma that came from the first batch of phones. Now, it's probably too late for Microsoft in this market. We have Iphones and Android phones. RIM has pulled back from its near-death experience with updated Blackberry phones to retain a distant third place in the market. There's really no niche for Microsoft to fill here. Game over?

A contender: Bing. It's not Google and that might be one of Bing's most salient features. Introduced in 2009, Bing has managed to carve out a space in the search engine market. Bing was launched following Microsoft's failed attempt to acquire Yahoo and is now in (distant) second place. Google is the search engine used for nearly 70% of all general Internet searches, compared to Bing's 18%. And Bing still isn't making any money for Microsoft. In fact, Microsoft recently closed its fiscal year and the online services division (Bing and MSN) reported a $1.3 billion loss.

On cloud nine: Microsoft cloud computing. Despite lackluster performance from the online services division and the largely ignored Outlook e-mail service (formerly Live Mail, formerly Hotmail), Microsoft is positioned well for cloud-based computing. That's somewhat surprising in light of the fact that Bill Gates originally thought that the Internet was nothing more than a passing fad and, as a result, brought Microsoft into network computing and the Web far too late.

Microsoft's Azure cloud service is a hit, particularly with big businesses. Microsoft's Enterprise Division is competitive and has the same kind of grip on that market segment as Microsoft has maintained for decades on the desktop. Google has entered the market, though, and this could result in a partly cloudy forecast for Microsoft.

Great call: Skype. During the Ballmer years, Microsoft acquired a lot of businesses. Some were abject failures, but the one that I think will stand out in the long term is Skype. Microsoft probably paid too much for Skype, but high-speed Internet access is becoming ubiquitous and, with that change, an increasing shift to voice over Internet protocol (VOIP).

Ballmer certainly made his share of bad calls in his time as CEO, but those who would paint the Ballmer years as disasters for Microsoft should also consider the calls that he got right.

Short Circuits

New York Times Off-Line Again; This Time, It Was Hackers

A week ago, the New York Times website was unavailable for several hours following an unsuccessful system update. The site was off-line again this week, but this time it was an attack by a group known as the Syrian Electronic Army, which supports President Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian Electronic Army brought the site down and also attacked the Huffington Post website in the United Kingdom just as it has recently done to sites operated by National Public Radio, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, and Twitter feeds from the Associated Press, the BBC's weather report (really!?), and Reuters.

In this most recent case, the attack was directed at Melbourne IT, the domain name registrar that the New York Times uses. This raises a question about why the newspaper would register its domain through an Australian registrar rather than one in the United States, but that's a question for some other time.

SEA attacked the Washington Post's website earlier this month and attempted to attack CNN. In May, SEA brought down London's Financial Times.

The shadowy organization that denies, somewhat less than effectively, any ties to the Syrian president, is likely to stage additional attacks—particularly if the United States takes any military action against Syria. More serious attacks could target oil pipelines, electric transmission lines, or the banking system.

Microsoft Snubs Technet and MSDN Subscribers

Microsoft has released Windows 8.1 to manufacturing and normally that would mean that members of the Microsoft Developers Network (MSDN) and Microsoft Technet would be able to download and install the update. Not so fast, folks! You'll have to wait until October 18th, just like everyone else.

That's unfortunate because it's Technet and MSDN subscribers (who pay no small amount for the privilege of trying Microsoft applications before they're released) that regular users turn to when they find that something doesn't work as expected. For Technet subscribers, it's a double snub because Microsoft is "sunsetting" the program, meaning that it's being discontinued.

Windows 8 received a lot of negative feedback, much of which wasn't justified, and version 8.1 will attempt the impossible: It will seek to make everyone happy, which is usually a sure way to make everyone unhappy.

Microsoft apparently plans to work on additional bug reports and to add some features with additional fixes prior to the release. The RTM code seemingly will be installed on computers that are destined for sale after October 18th and they won't have the additional patches that will be (might be? should be?) included in the update downloads in October. That would mean that machines with the RTM code will need to be updated immediately, which is true of most computers sold.

For example, a new computer my wife purchased had more than 70 updates the day we brought it home. That's to be expected. So why not release the code to MSDN and Technet subscribers and let them perform the same additional updates as everyone else in October? Microsoft is mum on that.

Some of the changes that are in the pipeline include smaller and larger Live Tiles, support for the user's own desktop wallpapers behind the Start Screen, returning the Start button, and adding an option to boot directly to the desktop (which will save exactly 1 keystroke).

Microsoft says that it has also improved multitasking of (Metro) apps and multi-monitor support (which I thought was pretty good now). The Metro interface will have more user controls and those will be useful.

Rarely has so much fuss been made by so many about so little.